Decisive, in bytes

The idea

Bad decisions come from four villains: narrow framing, confirmation bias, short-term emotion and overconfidence.

From the book

The Heaths' answer is a process called WRAP, with one step to fight each villain.

In real life

Choosing a new hire because you liked them in the first five minutes falls to three villains at once.

The idea

Even smart, experienced leaders fall to overconfidence and narrow framing.

From the book

Quaker Oats bought Snapple in 1994 for about $1.7 billion and sold it three years later for about $300 million.

In real life

Expanding into a new city because one shop did well ignores how different the new market may be.

The idea

Narrow framing traps us in 'whether or not' choices. Look for more alternatives.

From the book

Researcher Paul Nutt found 'whether or not' decisions failed about 52% of the time, versus about 32% for decisions that weighed two or more alternatives.

In real life

'Should we hire another accountant?' becomes 'Should we hire, automate or outsource?'

The idea

Imagine you can't choose any of your current options. What would you do then?

From the book

The Heaths show this question forces the mind to search for alternatives it was ignoring.

In real life

If you couldn't take the job offer or stay put, you might consider freelancing or further study.

The idea

Consider several options at once, rather than one at a time.

From the book

The Heaths cite research showing that designers who worked on several concepts in parallel produced better work than those who refined one idea at a time.

In real life

Asking for three draft designs at once gives better results than revising one draft three times.

The idea

Someone has probably already solved your problem. Find them.

From the book

Sam Walton famously visited competitors' stores to learn from them, and copied good ideas, like a new checkout system, wherever he found them.

In real life

Before designing a new approval process, ask other departments how they handle it.

The idea

Confirmation bias makes us seek evidence for what we already want to believe.

From the book

The Heaths suggest asking strategist Roger Martin's question: 'What would have to be true for this option to be the right answer?'

In real life

Before signing a supplier, call former customers, not just the references they provided.

The idea

Check base rates, then look closely at real details.

From the book

Zooming out means asking how similar ventures usually fare. Zooming in means getting a close-up view, such as visiting or trying the thing yourself.

In real life

Knowing most new restaurants struggle, you'd spend time in a few kitchens before investing in one.

The idea

Run small experiments before committing fully, which the Heaths call 'ooching'.

From the book

Instead of predicting whether something will work, test it cheaply: a pilot, a trial run or a short placement.

In real life

Before launching a new service, sell it to five customers first.

The idea

Short-term emotions distort decisions. Step back before deciding.

From the book

Suzy Welch's 10/10/10 rule: how will you feel about this decision in 10 minutes, 10 months and 10 years?

In real life

Quitting after a bad meeting looks very different through a ten-month lens.

The idea

Imagining an outsider's view cuts through attachment.

From the book

In 1985 Intel's Andy Grove asked Gordon Moore what a new CEO would do. 'Get us out of memories,' Moore said. They did it themselves, and Intel focused on microprocessors.

In real life

Asking 'What would I tell a friend in my position?' cuts through fear.

The idea

Clear priorities make agonising decisions easier.

From the book

The Heaths describe a medical charity that resolved a painful dispute with its volunteer surgeons once its leaders defined the charity's core priorities.

In real life

A team that agrees 'quality first' settles deadline trade-offs more easily.

The idea

Overconfidence makes us think we know how things will unfold. Plan for a range.

From the book

The Heaths suggest 'bookending': imagining both the best and the worst plausible outcomes, and preparing for each.

In real life

A budget with best, expected and worst cases avoids nasty surprises.

The idea

Imagine the decision has failed, then explain why.

From the book

A premortem, an idea from psychologist Gary Klein, surfaces risks people were too polite or too optimistic to raise.

In real life

Before a system launch, a team lists reasons it could fail, and fixes the top two.

The idea

Tripwires snap us out of autopilot at the right moment.

From the book

The band Van Halen demanded a bowl of M&Ms with all brown ones removed. Brown M&Ms meant the venue hadn't read the contract's safety details closely, so the crew checked everything.

In real life

'If costs exceed budget by 10%, we review the project' is a tripwire.

The idea

Groups decide better, and accept decisions more readily, with a fair process.

From the book

The Heaths argue that airing disagreement and following a clear process builds trust, even among those who don't get their way.

In real life

Letting each person state their view before deciding reduces resentment afterwards.