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All 6 learnings · one per slide
Fooled by
Randomness
Nassim Nicholas Taleb, in bytes
6 key learnings on the hidden role of chance in life and markets.
6 learnings · ~40 sec eachSwipe →
Library / Big Ideas & History / Fooled by Randomness
Fooled by Randomness, in bytes
6 key learnings from Nassim Nicholas Taleb's first book on how we mistake luck for skill. Each takes about 40 seconds to read. Swipe, use the arrows, or your keyboard.
Fooled by
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Learning 1
Luck Looks Like Skill
The idea
Many successful people, especially in markets, may simply have been lucky.
Takeaway
Results alone don't prove skill.
Fooled by Randomnessbooksinbytes.in
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Learning 2
Alternative Histories
The idea
Judge decisions by the range of outcomes that could have happened, not just the one that did.
Example
Russian roulette may pay well once, but the risk is unacceptable.
Fooled by Randomnessbooksinbytes.in
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Learning 3
Survivorship Bias
The idea
We see winners and ignore the many who failed with the same approach.
Takeaway
Count the graveyard.
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Learning 4
Noise vs Signal
The idea
Watching short-term fluctuations mostly shows noise.
Try this
Check investments less often.
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Learning 5
Rare Events
The idea
Strategies that win small amounts often can blow up on rare events.
Takeaway
Watch for hidden tail risk.
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Learning 6
Humility
The idea
Taleb admits his own emotions are hard to control and designs his life around his weaknesses.
Takeaway
Build systems that protect you from yourself.
Fooled by Randomnessbooksinbytes.in
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All 6 learnings complete
That’s all 6 learnings.
Luck often wears the mask of skill. Where might luck be explaining your results?
Abhay Kumar JaiswalFCA · PMP® · Workday Financeabhayjaiswal.com
Summaries in my own words. Read the book for the full stories.
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Summaries are written in my own words for learning. Read Fooled by Randomness by Nassim Nicholas Taleb (2001) for the full stories. More Books in Bytes