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All 8 learnings · one per slide
Super-
forecasting
Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner, in bytes
8 key learnings on the art and science of prediction.
8 learnings · ~40 sec eachSwipe →
Library / Mind & Psychology / Superforecasting
Superforecasting, in bytes
8 key learnings from Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner's account of the Good Judgment Project and the habits of the best forecasters. Each takes about 40 seconds to read. Swipe, use the arrows, or your keyboard.
Super-
Books in Bytes
Learning 1
Experts and Dart-Throwing Chimps
The idea
Tetlock's earlier research found many experts' long-range predictions were barely better than chance.
Takeaway
Confidence isn't accuracy.
Superforecastingbooksinbytes.in
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Learning 2
The Good Judgment Project
The idea
In a US intelligence-funded tournament, a group of amateur 'superforecasters' beat professional analysts.
Takeaway
Forecasting skill can be measured and improved.
Superforecastingbooksinbytes.in
Books in Bytes
Learning 3
Foxes, Not Hedgehogs
The idea
Foxes, who draw on many ideas, forecast better than hedgehogs with one big theory.
Takeaway
Stay open-minded.
Superforecastingbooksinbytes.in
Books in Bytes
Learning 4
Break Problems Down
The idea
Superforecasters split big questions into smaller, answerable parts, an approach associated with Enrico Fermi.
Try this
Break a hard estimate into steps.
Superforecastingbooksinbytes.in
Books in Bytes
Learning 5
Start with the Base Rate
The idea
Begin with how often things like this usually happen, then adjust for specifics.
Takeaway
Outside view first, inside view second.
Superforecastingbooksinbytes.in
Books in Bytes
Learning 6
Update Often
The idea
Make small, frequent updates as new evidence appears.
Takeaway
Change your mind in small steps.
Superforecastingbooksinbytes.in
Books in Bytes
Learning 7
Measure Accuracy
The idea
Score forecasts with numbers so you can learn from them.
Try this
Write predictions with probabilities, then check later.
Superforecastingbooksinbytes.in
Books in Bytes
Learning 8
Teams Help
The idea
Teams of good forecasters, sharing and challenging each other, did even better.
Takeaway
Constructive disagreement improves judgment.
Superforecastingbooksinbytes.in
Books in Bytes
All 8 learnings complete
That’s all 8 learnings.
Good forecasters update often. What belief of yours is due for an update?
Abhay Kumar JaiswalFCA · PMP® · Workday Financeabhayjaiswal.com
Summaries in my own words. Read the book for the full stories.
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Summaries are written in my own words for learning. Read Superforecasting by Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner (2015) for the full stories. More Books in Bytes